Tariff risk & visibility | Deep Analytics & Insights LLC

Tariff Risk & Procurement Analytics · Article

Five tariff changes landed in July. Was your analytics reactive, or ready?

12+
major federal tariff actions in the past 12 months
5
of them in July alone
≤30
days, typically, from signature to effective date

Trade policy did not slow down for summer. In three weeks the U.S. retired a global tariff, replaced it with a broader one, carved the EU out of the system entirely, revived a dormant 1930s statute against Canada, and put 100% on patented pharmaceuticals. None of it updated a spend dashboard on its own.

The speed matters more than any single rate. From signature to effective date is usually about 30 days. Teams that know which SKUs, plants, and suppliers are affected can reprice, find another source, or renegotiate inside that window. Teams that don't see it first on an invoice.

What changed Effective What it means
10% global tariff (Section 122) expired Jul 24 Hit its 150 day statutory limit. Replaced the same day by a new Section 301 tariff.
Section 301 tariff covering 60+ countries Jul 24 10% for most origins; 12.5% for a tier of 46 countries including China, Vietnam, Thailand.
EU capped at 15% in total Jul 1 EU goods pay 15% total, not 15% on top of existing duties. EU autos fall from 25% to 15%.
Canada hit with 50% under Section 338 Aug 19 Autos, dairy, alcohol and a long second list. Goods that qualify under USMCA are not exempt.
100% on patented pharmaceuticals and APIs Jul 31 Lower rates only where the origin negotiated one: 15% for the EU, Japan and Korea, 10% for the UK.

July's Section 301 tariff stacks on top of existing duties for most origins, but not for goods already covered by Section 232 steel, aluminum, or auto tariffs.

Five categories are carrying most of the increase.

Averaged across total spend, July looks modest. Broken out by category, it isn't. EU origin goods actually got cheaper. The average hides both.

Category Current stack Primary driver Exposure
Patented pharmaceuticals & APIs 100% Section 232 High
Canadian autos, dairy, alcohol, furniture +50% Section 338 High
Steel, aluminum & copper derivatives 25 to 50%, on full customs value Section 232 High
Electronics & semiconductors Up to 50% Section 232, some by country of design Medium
Goods from that tier of 46 countries 12.5% Section 301 Medium

Rates as of early August 2026 and subject to change. Stacked rates run higher: Chinese steel rebar currently lands near 75%. Confirm against the specific HTS code before pricing an order.

A tariff doesn't tax a vendor. It taxes a product, from a country, on the day it lands.

Your vendor master doesn't tell you where a part came from.

In most ERPs, the vendor master holds the address you send payment to, not the place where the SKU was made. Those are frequently different countries, and only one of them determines the tariff.

The same vendor can supply two of your plants with the same SKU sourced from two different countries. On a spend report, that's one supplier and one part number. At the border, it's two duty rates.

Illustrative
One SKU, one vendor, two exposures
SKU Plant Vendor (AP) Origin Exposure
6304-B Bearing Monterrey Meridian Distribution Mexico Low
6304-B Bearing Dayton Meridian Distribution China High

Same part number, same vendor code, two landed costs. A spend cube shows one line.

Measuring exposure takes four fields joined together: supplier, plant, SKU, and country of origin captured per shipment, not per supplier, since origin changes when a supplier adds a plant or a subcontractor.

Sources
Presidential proclamations and Federal Register notices, with analysis from White & Case and Holland & Knight (Section 338), the Thomson Reuters Institute, and the Tax Foundation tariff tracker.

From proclamation to action, before the effective date.

1 Discover. Which categories this month's changes actually hit, and what each one turns on: renegotiate, dual source, or absorb.
2 Model. Join spend, plant, SKU, and origin at the shipment level into one exposure view.
3 Design. Build the escalation views with the category managers who use them, so a rate change becomes a task.
4 Activate. Your team acts on real exposure every time the schedule moves, not last quarter's vendor address.

Not sure where your tariff exposure sits? Let's find out.

If your spend data can't yet answer “how exposed are we,” that gap is worth a conversation.

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